2024 US Presidential Election: Election Day 2024 has arrived, and America is watching closely as voters make their choice in a tight, high-stakes presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. With polls opening nationwide, the nation awaits the outcome of this closely contested election that could reshape the country’s direction. Here’s a look at the latest polls, swing-state insights, predictions from political experts, and what to expect as the day unfolds.
Election Day 2024 Polling Insights: Trump and Harris in a Deadlock
Polls reveal an incredibly close race with both Donald Trump and Harris neck-and-neck as Election Day progresses. Though Harris has a slight national lead, the results are far from guaranteed, with significant variations across states. Here’s where things stand as of early this morning:
ABC News / FiveThirtyEight: Harris maintains a small edge at 48.0%, while Trump is close behind at 46.8%.
270toWin Composite Polls: National polling shows Harris ahead by just 1.2%.
RealClearPolitics Betting Odds: The betting odds indicate a narrow edge for Harris, though fluctuations in the days leading up to the election have kept this race in constant motion.
This data shows that both candidates have strengths in different areas, but with margins this slim, the election could come down to a few critical swing states.
Key Swing States to Watch
Swing states are at the heart of this election, with both candidates campaigning heavily in regions like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. These battleground states could tip the scales in favor of either candidate, making every vote crucial.
Pennsylvania: Known for its diverse voting base, Pennsylvania remains a critical factor for both Trump and Harris. While traditionally leaning Democratic in recent years, Trump made significant gains here in 2016, and his team hopes to recreate that success in 2024.
Arizona: Historically a conservative state, Arizona’s demographic shifts have transformed it into a battleground. Both candidates have been pushing hard to win over Arizona’s growing population of young and minority voters.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin, with its mix of urban and rural voters, is another state that could go either way. Due to election laws, votes here cannot be counted until today, so results might be delayed.
These states are likely to be pivotal in determining the final outcome, and every precinct’s results will be closely monitored.
Indiana: Trump’s Stronghold
Indiana has shown strong support for Trump, with recent polling indicating he has a commanding lead here:
ABC News / FiveThirtyEight: Trump holds a comfortable 16.8% margin in Indiana.
270toWin Composite Polls: Indiana polls reflect a 16.5% lead for Trump.
RealClearPolitics Betting Odds: The odds heavily favor Trump in Indiana, where he’s expected to capture a significant share of the vote.
While Indiana’s support may not swing the national outcome, it remains an essential foundation for Trump’s electoral strategy.
Expert Predictions: Allan Lichtman and His “Keys to the White House”
One of the most closely followed predictors in U.S. elections, Professor Allan Lichtman, is back with his 2024 prediction. Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections using his unique “Keys to the White House” model, believes Harris will clinch this election.
In an interview with USA Today, Lichtman shared that “every election brings a fresh challenge, and this one feels especially unpredictable.” While he has high confidence in his model, which accounts for historical and socioeconomic factors, he admitted to having “a flock of crows” in his stomach this year. With such a tight race, even seasoned experts are acknowledging the unprecedented nature of this election.
When Will We Know the Results?
Election Day may mark the end of voting, but it’s unlikely to be the end of the election process. Historically, final results are not available on Election Day, and 2024 is expected to be no different. Here’s why results may be delayed:
High Volume of Mail-In and Early Votes: Since the pandemic, more Americans are opting for mail-in voting, which takes longer to process and count.
State-by-State Rules: In states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, mail-in ballots cannot legally be counted until Election Day. This creates potential delays, especially in swing states where the race is tight.
Certification Deadlines: State certification deadlines vary, with some allowing weeks before official results are finalized. Given the high stakes, any irregularities or close margins could lead to recounts and challenges.
Based on these factors, Americans should brace for the possibility of days or even weeks before the election’s outcome is officially confirmed.
FAQs on Election Day 2024
Q: What time do the polls close on Election Day?
A: Polling hours vary by state, but most polls close between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET. Be sure to check your state’s specific polling times.
Q: How accurate are Election Day polls?
A: Polls offer a snapshot of voter preferences leading up to Election Day, but they are not always predictive, especially in close races. Small sample sizes, undecided voters, and last-minute shifts can all impact outcomes.
Q: How are betting odds determined for the election?
A: Betting odds are set by bookmakers and reflect where the public is placing money on outcomes. They can be an indicator of perceived probability but are not definitive predictors of election results.
Q: What happens if there is no clear winner on Election Night?
A: If no clear winner is declared on Election Night, the counting and certification process continues. States with close results may conduct recounts, and if necessary, any legal disputes may be resolved through the courts.
Q: When will absentee and mail-in ballots be counted?
A: This varies by state. Some states start counting mail-in ballots before Election Day, while others, like Pennsylvania, only begin counting them on Election Day. This can affect the timeline for knowing results.
Will We See a Repeat of the 2020 Delays?
In 2020, a surge in mail-in ballots due to the pandemic led to a slower-than-usual reporting process. This year, similar laws remain in place in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where election officials are prohibited from counting early votes until Election Day. Given this restriction, these states may experience significant delays if the vote is close, making Election Night results unlikely for these key states.
Swing States and Voter Turnout: The Key Factors
Ultimately, this election may hinge on turnout, especially in swing states where margins are slim. Voter enthusiasm is high, and both parties have heavily invested in grassroots campaigns, aiming to drive people to the polls in large numbers. High turnout historically favors Democratic candidates, though Trump’s strong appeal to his base could make a difference.
What’s Next for America?
As Americans await the results, the stakes for the future are clear. This election will shape the country’s stance on critical issues like healthcare, the economy, climate policy, and international relations. With two candidates who represent starkly different visions for the future, every vote truly matters.